Bitcoin set a new all-time high above 66000 with Ethereum reclaiming four thousand dollars for the first time since May.
Ethereum has tipped back over the four thousand dollar mark for the first time in five months amid a surging cryptocurrency market.
In this blog, I want to try to help answer the question of what happens next. Let’s take a look at different cycles so let’s take a look at data from this cycle versus the last cycles. Let’s try and answer the question how high could we go this cycle when will this cycle top out when will this cycle end let’s talk about why this cycle and this year and this break of an all-time high is so much different from previous times with fundamental things happening in the macro world.
First of all, let’s just start a big picture, and then we’ll get into some specific data first all if you take a look and month after month quarter after quarter Bitcoin monthly returns since bitcoin came into fruition you will notice that q4 is greener than many other quarters. The months of October November and December tend to be greener than other quarters so people who have been in cryptocurrency for a while are expecting something like this not exactly like this but there’s plenty of reasons to think with the break of all-time highs. We’re going to see something explosive like we have every other cycle so this is 2017 versus 2021.
Bitcoin more like 2013 or is Bitcoin more like 2017
Let’s actually take a look at 2013 in 2017 and 2021 bitcoin bull cycle side by side and you’ll notice a few similarities charts are very simple in all of them. We had one a mid-cycle correction two reversals of the downtrend in July and three an explosive q4 with new all-time highs. So let’s drill down is bitcoin more like 2013 or is bitcoin more like 2017 no matter. What the cycle is there are obvious similarities between all of them but I think bitcoin’s lining up a lot closer to what we saw in 2013 of course not exactly but we’re seeing the April high. We’re seeing the July bounce we’re seeing the October breakout that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now a similar rise 2021 bitcoin is repeating 2013 on the macro and it couldn’t be any clearer.
How high could bitcoin’s price go?
So let’s answer the question of how high based on everything we know how high could bitcoin’s price go. Something interesting for bitcoin top projection in both 2013 and 2017 the run after the mid-cycle dip moved 30 percent per bi-weekly rise applying to 2021. We get a top about 390 000 a 300 a 390 000 bitcoin between a quarter-million and a half a million do I think it’ll get this high. I don’t know if it’ll get this high but the consistency is interesting and shows that we have tons of room to run that’s my takeaway will we get up to 390 000 like some charts are projecting I think we can get over 200 000 that’s just my opinion the point is we have plenty of room to run. The bulls are in full control so just how long is this cycle going to last we all know markets go in ebbs and flows we can have years of bear market and years of a bull market. I believe we’re in the latter half of the years of the bull market so did you know that the 2017 bull market lasted about 35 longer than the 2013 bull market lengthening cycles is a theory that’s looking more appealing. If we assume that this one is going to be about 35 percent longer than the previous one then by the end of q1 2021 the bull market should end the bull market could end as early as this quarter October November December. This is honestly what we usually see but if cycles are lengthening the bull market could be extended to January February or march, of course, anything could happen. But again things are so much different this cycle compared to the last cycle let’s go over a few of them. The first-ever bitcoin futures ETF traded nearly one billion dollars on the first day the first-ever bitcoin ETF has hit the market and it nearly broke the trading record for any debuting ETF. Around the corner, bitcoin is so much larger and so much more mainstream and knowing and bigger than previous cycles bitcoin has just passed the swiss franc and is now the 13th largest world currency by market cap bitcoin could no longer be ignored.
Ethereum reclaiming four thousand dollars for the first time since May
Ethereum is not only so much different from the last cycle but so much different than just back when it hit 4k back about five months ago in May. Since the last time that ETH was at 4k what’s different eip1559 went live issuance dropped to 57 percent over 2.3 billion dollars of Eth has been burnt forever taking supply off the market Eth layer 2 solutions arbitrary optimism have both launched NFT volume has quadrupled. Eth 2.0 has nearly doubled and d5 total value locked is up 20 since then continuing to go parabolic with Facebook launching its own cryptocurrency wallet with Facebook turning to Coinbase and Paxos for their Novi cryptocurrency wallet.
Keep in mind that facebook chose Coinbase as a custody partner for their digital wallet there are almost 3 billion people on Facebook. Buckle up my friends because cryptocurrency is about to enter into another order of magnitude into the mainstream.
Partnership huge Coinbase inc sponsorship deal with the NBA
Partnership huge Coinbase inc sponsorship deal with the NBA and the WNBA Coinbase following rival FTX with a big push into sports marketing, in brief, the Coinbase deal will last for multiple years. It will see Coinbase branding appear on televised games starting yesterday night there will also be an effort to educate fans about the cryptocurrency this whole space is going to get a whole lot bigger. Right now bitcoin at just under 66 000 right now Eth under actually right above 4000 dips in bull trends dips in bull markets are meant for buying.
The next three to six months will be the most explosive months in my opinion the best part of the bull market.